Oct 15 2008
Hurricane Omar to Track Over Virgin Islands
As of mid day Wednesday, the forecast track for Hurricane Omar brings the eye over St Croix and just North of Tortola. The big worry beyond the possibility of a Category 3 is rain. The quadrant to the South and East of the storm will contain the most rain with predictions as high as 20 inches ! That quadrant is going to affect all of the Northern Leeward islands of the Caribbean.
The following graph shows the current Closest Approach of the eye of the hurricane to the Virgin Islands.
cpa Island/Town mi km hours Tortola: 5.7 9.2 20.6 (Thursday, Octover 16 at 7:36AM EDT) St.Croix: 11.5 18.5 17.8 (Thursday, Octover 16 at 4:48AM EDT) St.John: 12.0 19.3 19.9 (Thursday, Octover 16 at 6:54AM EDT) St.Thomas: 24.2 39.0 19.3 (Thursday, Octover 16 at 6:18AM EDT)
We wish all of our friends, acquaintances, as well as everybody else in this region the very best of luck over the next 24 hours. The Saba Rock webcam is still operational as of this writing and shows heavy rain falling and the wind just beginning to pick up.
This graphic from SailFlow shows the expected storm passing over the islands as of their predictions mid day on Wednesday, clearly showing the eye over the BVI and the heavier winds to the South and East
UPDATE – 4PM EST 10/15 – -> Hurricane hunter aircraft report this afternoon that the barometric pressure has fallen 12mb in the past 6 hours and a drop of 5mb in just the past two hours to 973. The eyewall is having a hard time staying together which could keep the wind speeds down until after the storm passes them mid-day tomorrow. Thankfully wind shear and some interaction with the islands could keep this to a Category 2 in the BVI and the stronger rains could miss off to the Southeast. Antigua radio is asking people to prepare for a major rain event.
FINAL UPDATE – 7:30pm EST 10/15 – -> The prognosticator over at CaribWx, whom I find is right on more often than anyone else notes that Omar has nudged a bit East of the projected track. With just a little luck this will put the Virgin Islands in the less destructive Western Quadrant of the storm. I too, noticed this jog to the West a couple hours ago but not being any kind of official weather man, thought it not my place to announce it. The folks in St Martin are now in the crosshairs of Omar and we wish them every bit of luck that is left out there today.
Â
[...] on 11/22 on Sailflow. Of special interest is the comparison of this graphic to the graphic of Hurricane Omar in my last post. That pretty pink color reflects a forecast of winds in excess of 40+ knots. While [...]